Reasoning and logical inference are essential ingredients of scientific thinking and are important in engineering and the social sciences. Especially in causal and probabilistic reasoning are lurking fallacies, paradoxes, and other pitfalls. Psychological literature is full of examples of scientific fallacies, cognitive biases, and distorted risk perception. In this workshop we will learn how to avoid these fallacies. Participants will gain competence in logical thinking (de-ductive and inductive inference), the evaluation of causal and statistical arguments, rational choice theory, and risk assessment.
Learning results:
- competence in logical reasoning,
- knowing how to draw conclusions from given premises,
- ability to distinguish between valid and invalid inferences,
- ability to distinguish between causation and correlation,
- knowing how to use bayesianism as a tool for probabilistic reasoning,
- knowing how to decide under risk and uncertainty.
Main topics:
deductive and inductive inference, logical fallacies, verificationism and falsificationism, scientific reasoning according to Popper and Kuhn, probabilistic reasoning, bayesianism, the Monty Hall problem, the Simpson paradox, causation and correlation, the common cause principle, rational choice theory, the framing effect, the Ellsberg paradox, risk assessment, decision making under risk and uncertainty.